So what will 2010, the Chinese Year of the Tiger, bring us? The truthful answer is, who knows? But it is fun to speculate. So I am going to go out on a limb here and make my 10 predictions for 2010. Here goes (in no particular order):
1. Stocks will rise in the first half, then dip in the second half
The economic tsunami has elevated competing economic theories almost to the level of religion, and so it is with great solemnity that I reveal by subscription to the "double dip" school of thought. I think the second dip will start some time in the second half of 2010, when stimulus funds run out and interest rates start to rise again. What I don't know is whether the second dip will be just that, or more like a crash. Regardless, if you're heavily invested in equities, especially non-BRIC ones, get out by June!
2. Tiger will return to golf ... with a vengeance!
The Year of the Tiger will be good to Tiger. Yes, his tigress will probably maul him in court and extract her $300-400 million pound of flesh. And yes, the media will make another couple of hundred million sensationalizing and selling the divorce story. But then, both Tiger and the world will realize that golf is what really matters more than all of this nonsense. The world will forgive him for being the fallen moral idol and love him again, this time just for being the greatest golfer ever. We will even come to know - and perhaps like - his latest girlfriend! And Tiger will re-take the golfing world by storm - he will have lost time and a lost 300-400 million to make up for!
3. India will not be (as) embarrassed as the Commonwealth Games host.
If expectations are low enough, any level of performance can look good, and the Indians know this well. The world of sport currently thinks they will have to walk to the games in Delhi, and carry along brick and mortar to build the stadia. So when this does not happen, they will be pleasantly surprised. Also, India will not be embarrassed because more embarrassing things are likely to occur anyway, like Obama executing a 90-degree bow, this time to the Chinese Premier Hu (he got the country wrong last year owing to jet lag).
4. A 3-D animated character will win an Oscar.
Avatar has changed the movie business, and the full effects will become visible in 2010 and beyond. Animation has come of age, and it is beautiful. 3-D movies are having their 2.0 moment (a la Web 2.0). We will see more 3-D animated heroes and heroines, and someone will go on to win an Oscar for their role in creating a 3-D animated character in 2010.
5. We will spend more on war, less on peace
The US spends roughly half of the world's defense dollars, and they have decided to increase their spend in 2010 to an all-time high of $660 Bn. This is mainly to fund the Afghan troop surge. Many other countries will take their cue from the US and spend more on defence - India, China, Iran, Russia and others are already planning to do so.
Beyond direct defense spending, we will spend more on costly security measures for travel (no thanks to the underwear bomber and his ilk) and for intelligence and counter-insurgency efforts around the world. As a result, we will be forced to spend less on human welfare and poverty reduction, at least in percentage terms. Sad, but true.
6. A global climate deal will prove elusive (but it won't matter)
The financial hurdle to a global climate deal is too high for the (now less rich) First World, and their bargaining power is now too low vs. the emerging world. So a global climate deal is a non-starter. But in 2010, there will be a growing realization that we are wasting time barking up the wrong tree. Cuts in greenhouse gases - whether voluntary or involuntary - are unlikely to reverse global warming unless they are so drastic as to be economically crushing. The answer, as always, lies in innovation, not in cutting down on economic activity. What we need is path-breaking, world-changing technological innovation both in greenhouse gas management and clean energy. The scientists hold the key, not the politicians. Will the geniuses who will save the world step forward soon, please?
7. The Year of the Tablet
The hi-tech landscape is littered with failed tablet devices (as are our desk storage spaces). But that's because Apple has not (yet) innovated this space. They will do so in 2010, and tablets will never be the same again. With tablets, Apple will do to mobile computing what they did to mobile music with Ipod and to mobile telephony with Iphone: bring sexy design, outstanding user-interface and powerful marketing to bear on simple, existing technologies to make them much more top of mind and widely accepted by general users.
9. Singapore will have a good year
It behooves me to include the city-state I live in among my 10 predictions. I am bullish on Singapore this year. The integrated resorts are on track and look fantastic. They will boost tourism. Singapore's trade and export oriented model will benefit from a slow global recovery, but even more from a shift in global economic power to China and India. Singapore is well positioned for this year and both real estate and stocks will rise together with GDP.
10. I will have a 6-pack this year
Ok, this one is based mostly on blind hope, unlike the 9 above, which are based on blind guesses. But then again, who knows?
Cheers!
3. India will not be (as) embarrassed as the Commonwealth Games host.
If expectations are low enough, any level of performance can look good, and the Indians know this well. The world of sport currently thinks they will have to walk to the games in Delhi, and carry along brick and mortar to build the stadia. So when this does not happen, they will be pleasantly surprised. Also, India will not be embarrassed because more embarrassing things are likely to occur anyway, like Obama executing a 90-degree bow, this time to the Chinese Premier Hu (he got the country wrong last year owing to jet lag).
4. A 3-D animated character will win an Oscar.
Avatar has changed the movie business, and the full effects will become visible in 2010 and beyond. Animation has come of age, and it is beautiful. 3-D movies are having their 2.0 moment (a la Web 2.0). We will see more 3-D animated heroes and heroines, and someone will go on to win an Oscar for their role in creating a 3-D animated character in 2010.
5. We will spend more on war, less on peace
The US spends roughly half of the world's defense dollars, and they have decided to increase their spend in 2010 to an all-time high of $660 Bn. This is mainly to fund the Afghan troop surge. Many other countries will take their cue from the US and spend more on defence - India, China, Iran, Russia and others are already planning to do so.
Beyond direct defense spending, we will spend more on costly security measures for travel (no thanks to the underwear bomber and his ilk) and for intelligence and counter-insurgency efforts around the world. As a result, we will be forced to spend less on human welfare and poverty reduction, at least in percentage terms. Sad, but true.
6. A global climate deal will prove elusive (but it won't matter)
The financial hurdle to a global climate deal is too high for the (now less rich) First World, and their bargaining power is now too low vs. the emerging world. So a global climate deal is a non-starter. But in 2010, there will be a growing realization that we are wasting time barking up the wrong tree. Cuts in greenhouse gases - whether voluntary or involuntary - are unlikely to reverse global warming unless they are so drastic as to be economically crushing. The answer, as always, lies in innovation, not in cutting down on economic activity. What we need is path-breaking, world-changing technological innovation both in greenhouse gas management and clean energy. The scientists hold the key, not the politicians. Will the geniuses who will save the world step forward soon, please?
7. The Year of the Tablet
The hi-tech landscape is littered with failed tablet devices (as are our desk storage spaces). But that's because Apple has not (yet) innovated this space. They will do so in 2010, and tablets will never be the same again. With tablets, Apple will do to mobile computing what they did to mobile music with Ipod and to mobile telephony with Iphone: bring sexy design, outstanding user-interface and powerful marketing to bear on simple, existing technologies to make them much more top of mind and widely accepted by general users.
8. Made-to-order babies will be the newest rage
Well, strictly for multi-millionaires at this time, sorry. Advances in our understanding of the genome have brought us to a point where we can influence the genetic code of a human embryo. We can increase the odds of desirable genes to turn on and undesirable ones to turn off. Genetically made-to-order babies are (almost) possible now, and I predict that at least one multi-millionaire will produce one in 2010.
9. Singapore will have a good year
It behooves me to include the city-state I live in among my 10 predictions. I am bullish on Singapore this year. The integrated resorts are on track and look fantastic. They will boost tourism. Singapore's trade and export oriented model will benefit from a slow global recovery, but even more from a shift in global economic power to China and India. Singapore is well positioned for this year and both real estate and stocks will rise together with GDP.
10. I will have a 6-pack this year
Ok, this one is based mostly on blind hope, unlike the 9 above, which are based on blind guesses. But then again, who knows?
Cheers!
your view 2010 is really a new year specially for people like me because i havent understood half of the things which are likely to happen.
ReplyDeletewhat i can understand seems bright and beautiful,last but not the least chandan with six pac, wow, that will be really new year sight to be seen. lots of best wishes... keep writing....
My prediction is that the world will survive to see 2011. From experience such predictions are accuate to +/-20% 80% of the time. Cheers
ReplyDeletehaha - the unmistakable, indelible imprint of P&G CMK
ReplyDeletewonderful reading you could give the astros a run for their money.In fact i was alredy thinking i'll be looking for a surrogate mom for my son...in future.
ReplyDelete6pac "you" will make a good sequel for Om Shanti om. best of luck.
nothing mew written i have been reading this day's blog till now i have memrised the whole thing. are you waitng for each prediction to come true before you write again?.....missing your thoghts on this world and beyond matters.
ReplyDelete